WASHINGTON — The reality of finalizing the fiscal 2015 budget submission is driving top US defense officials and the White House to quickly make major decisions, and indications are growing that the elimination of one carrier and one carrier air wing could be among the defense request’s key features.
Pentagon officials would not confirm or deny the matter, citing the fluid nature of budget discussions. But numerous sources — in the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill, in the defense industry — agreed that the prospect is picking up steam.
“It’s quietly being socialized,” one source said, and others agreed.
Others emphasized that no decisions have been reached, and talks are being held in strict confidence.
“Stuff is in churn,” one source said.
That the US Navy and the Pentagon, faced with the need to come up with drastic budget cuts, have contemplated reducing the fleet’s vaunted carrier strength is nothing new — Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned as much last summer.
“We would trade away size for high-end capability,” Hagel said July 31. “This would ... reduce the number of carrier strike groups from 11 to eight or nine.”
Hagel was discussing one scenario put forth in the Strategic Choices Management Review, an internal Pentagon effort to identify budget-cutting approaches and tactics.
The basic tradeoff, he explained, would be one of reducing capacity for “our ability to modernize weapons systems and to maintain our military’s technological edge.”
The Navy’s top leadership has said repeatedly over the past year that “all options are on the table” to reduce costs.
Asked for comment, the Navy declined to address the carrier issue directly....
...The carrier most often targeted is the Japan-based George Washington. Commissioned in 1992, GW is scheduled in 2016 to begin a three-year midlife refueling and complex overhaul at Newport News Shipbuilding in Virginia — where all active carriers were built — that is expected to cost well over $3 billion.
The Navy already has announced the carrier Ronald Reagan will replace the George Washington in Japan. Any move affecting the decommissioning of a carrier would have no effect on the American commitment to maintaining a forward-based carrier in Japan, Navy officials said.
Carriers are designed for a 50-year lifespan and undergo only one refueling overhaul, during which nearly every major system in the ship is rebuilt, renewed or replaced.
A reduction of the carrier force has been analyzed on many occasions. A 2011 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report looked at a 10-ship, nine-wing fleet, achieved by decommissioning the George Washington.
The report noted the Navy could save “about $7 billion over the 2012-2021 period,” when GW would be returned to service. The report did not include anticipated savings over the 2021-2042 period, during which a refueled George Washington would be operating.
Decommissioning GW would cost about $2 billion, CBO estimated, although those costs would be spread out at least through 2021.
Numerous internal and external studies have concluded the Navy could carry out its missions with a reduced carrier force, although many of those same studies acknowledge that a 15-ship force would be necessary to meet most regional combatant commander requirements.